The Killer Opp
January 2007
"Just remember: No matter where you go...there you are."
—Buckaroo Bonzai, The Adventures of Buckaroo Bonzai Across the Eighth Dimension
The term "killer app" first appeared in the 1980s, when the development of spreadsheet software was widely credited with driving PC sales. Later, e-mail emerged as the so-called killer app for internet adoption.
It's almost a cliché these days that technology spectators want to know nothing less (and sadly, nothing more) than what the next killer app is. If we knew, the thinking goes, we could just buy/invest in the underlying technology whose own adoption will explode from the market's raving enthusiasm for the application. Thus looking like geniuses, to say nothing of making the quick buck we all deserve.
So for everyone who likes things simple, here you go: the next killer app is really the next killer opp—Anywhere.
Yankee Group believes that connectivity technology is rapidly becoming ubiquitous, significantly transforming business and consumer interactions in its wake. We call this phenomenon the Evolution of AnywhereSM, because the liberation we achieve in not being chained to one computer, device or network means we can have our work and our play with us anywhere we are.
Anywhere is the new killer opportunity because it will lead to explosive growth in the underlying technologies that support it. How do we know?
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It's driving mobile data and mobile broadband: Today, mobile data revenue is over $105 billion globally; Yankee Group expects it to reach $170 billion by 2010. Mobile TV/video and mobile IM are two applications that will see growth in revenues of over 30% year-over-year globally in the next 4 years. Accelerated adoption of mobile broadband services in mature markets, including North America and Korea, is just one reason for the growth of WiMAX subscribers, which we expect to grow from 3.4 million in 2006 to almost 28 million by 2011.
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It's driving next-generation network investments: Our forecasting work suggests U.S. carrier cap-ex will grow by 14% year-over-year through 2010 as the providers invest in fiber plant, metro Ethernet, IMS, and more. The communications industry has accepted IMS as the unifying architecture of next-generation services that will make the Anywhere Network a more intelligent platform and make service rollouts faster and less expensive.
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It's driving rapid device experimentation: The introduction of converged devices, like digital audio players with video playback (e.g., Microsoft's Zune and Apple's video iPod) and music-capable phones (e.g., Motorola's ROKR and LG's Fusic) is causing consumers to trade up their traditional digital audio players for sleek, all-in-one devices. Rapid adoption of these devices is evident: the number of music-capable phones today is approximately 36 million and is expected to reach 225 million by 2010.
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Think nomadic: We're on the move and we like taking things with us. Built-in connectivity that makes sense, that's transparent, works for us.
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Think threaded: Help us keep it together—create the continuity we need among interactions, among devices, among teams. Don't make us keep track of it all—do it for us.
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Think shiny: We're a consumer culture, even at work. We enjoy fun color choices and slick features. We don't expect to own these things forever, but like macaws we're drawn to gather to us what glints at us in the sun.